Catholic Approval of Trump Falls to 48% as Iran War Divides Religious Voters

A joint poll conducted March 20-23 found that Catholic voter approval of President Donald Trump has dropped below 50% for the first time since his 2024 election victory, with 48% approving and 52% disapproving of his job performance. The decline coincides with escalating U.S. military operations against Iran and public statements from Pope Leo XIV urging Trump to pursue diplomacy over military action.

The poll, conducted by Republican firm Shaw & Co. Research and Democratic firm Beacon Research, shows a sharp reversal from Trump's 2024 performance among Catholic voters, when he won 55% of the bloc's support—a 12-point margin over Vice President Kamala Harris. The current survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among those surveyed, 23% strongly approve of Trump's presidency, 25% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 40% strongly disapprove.

On the Iran conflict specifically, the divide is even steeper. Only 40% of Catholics approve of how Trump has handled the Iran situation, while 60% disapprove. The poll found that 55% of Catholics oppose military force against Iran, compared with 45% who support it. When asked whether military action is going well, 55% said it is not, while 45% said it is.

Pope Leo XIV has directly challenged Trump's military strategy. On April 10, the pontiff posted on X: "God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs." Catholic bishops in the United States and globally have similarly encouraged Trump to pursue peace negotiations rather than military escalation.

John White, professor emeritus of politics at The Catholic University of America, told EWTN News that Trump's 2024 coalition "is now in tatters" and that the pope's statements may be creating "cognitive dissonance among Catholics who support Trump." White noted that the Iran War is broadly unpopular with the American public, and Catholics reflect that sentiment.

Context

Trump's 2024 Catholic support marked a significant shift in the religious voting bloc's alignment. In 2020, Trump won only 49% of the Catholic vote against President Joe Biden's 50%, suggesting the 55% he achieved in 2024 represented a 6-point improvement among this demographic. This poll indicates that gain has now reversed, with Trump's Catholic support falling 7 points below his 2024 performance.

The broader electorate has also turned against Trump's presidency. The same poll found that only 41% of all American voters approve of his job performance, with 59% disapproving. This suggests Trump's decline among Catholics tracks with a nationwide shift in public sentiment, though the religious demographic has proven particularly responsive to institutional religious leadership on matters of war and peace.

What's Next

The timing of this polling data creates immediate pressure on Trump as peace negotiations with Iran remain underway. The pope's continued public messaging on the conflict—combined with the disapproval of U.S. Catholic bishops—suggests religious leaders will continue to frame military action as incompatible with Catholic teaching, potentially widening the gap between Trump and his former Catholic base as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Trump's ability to stabilize Catholic support may depend on whether military operations de-escalate or expand in the coming weeks, particularly as the pope has signaled he intends to maintain his diplomatic advocacy.